Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 25.846843 27.398199 29.045901 30.935214 33.053074 35.367514 38.106923
2025-12-07 23.508649 25.587471 27.904825 30.709285 34.053303 37.969623 42.992547
2025-12-14 21.886883 24.192883 26.838421 30.148281 34.254584 39.292967 46.135309
2025-12-21 20.648622 23.098359 25.972737 29.666141 34.400872 40.446431 49.087026
2025-12-28 20.173635 22.843278 26.049091 30.285771 35.912927 43.425495 54.824230
2026-01-04 19.658090 22.486043 25.948739 30.636681 37.060850 45.993161 60.342197
2026-01-11 19.186802 22.143005 25.825733 30.921366 38.108821 48.497115 66.162347
2026-01-18 18.630844 21.655331 25.476035 30.858013 38.635424 50.258180 71.060731
2026-01-25 17.961107 20.986031 24.846670 30.357835 38.469257 50.908829 74.107456
2026-02-01 17.357706 20.374921 24.261026 29.875389 38.277903 51.477326 77.082072
2026-02-08 16.802829 19.804163 23.701202 29.391990 38.038660 51.925775 79.890950
2026-02-15 16.339122 19.335521 23.257555 29.046679 37.978750 52.655888 83.410787
2026-02-22 16.186876 19.285082 23.395545 29.574616 39.364464 56.115309 93.893132
2026-03-01 15.814623 18.924498 23.087079 29.420621 39.635983 57.610689 100.370685
2026-03-08 15.346029 18.416119 22.549157 28.887824 39.233283 57.784045 103.592427
2026-03-15 14.933933 17.971957 22.085153 28.443366 38.944875 58.141276 107.436232
2026-03-22 14.862750 17.991603 22.278689 29.017556 40.436252 62.212765 123.435830
2026-03-29 14.720480 17.906169 22.314743 29.342975 41.516264 65.618074 139.441566
2026-04-05 14.568000 17.800168 22.314410 29.606653 42.503598 68.990934 157.729743
2026-04-12 14.333890 17.571202 22.123106 29.547988 42.885836 71.057682 172.593242
2026-04-19 14.001120 17.193274 21.697934 29.084499 42.466983 71.176652 179.133870
2026-04-26 13.687464 16.835346 21.292473 28.637031 42.050174 71.254100 185.733848
2026-05-03 13.386730 16.489310 20.895523 28.188269 41.603372 71.208774 191.904031